Wheat futures have already fallen off from all-time record highs seen in September, but this week saw an unprecedented fall.

Monday saw wheat rally as rumors of a possible Russian export duty increase from 10 percent to 30 percent hit the market. Were the rumor true, it would have made Russian wheat exports considerably more expensive for the importing countries, thus driving most export demand to the U.S.

The December wheat contract closed the day at 871 cents per bushel on the news. Tuesday saw a dramatic reversal. As the export duty rumor swelled to a possible 50 percent, most traders started to believe it could not possibly be true and started to sell positions that they had bought on Monday.

Wheat fell by its exchange-imposed limit of 30 cents on the day. On Wednesday, Russia officially announced that it was not increasing its export duty and wheat fell again by its exchange-imposed limit. This is the first time since the CBOT set wheat's daily limit at 30 cents that wheat has been limit down for two consecutive days.

On Thursday, Ontario, Canada, indicated a huge increase in wheat plantings for the year. Traders took this as a sign of what may be happening in the U.S. as a result of wheat prices that stand more than 75 percent higher than they were last fall. By midday Thursday, the December wheat contract had touched a low of 804.5 cents per bushel, a 7.6 percent fall from Monday's close. If wheat plantings do show a large increase in the U.S. this fall, it could continue to pressure futures prices lower, especially the new-crop futures starting in May of next year.

Crude oil futures also showed a dramatic turnaround this week. After selling off on Monday and Tuesday, crude futures also were weak on Wednesday morning prior to the Department of Energy's weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Prior to the report, December crude futures were down by more than a dollar-and-a-half on the week to a low of $84.82 on Wednesday. While analysts had been expecting an increase in oil inventories of nearly 1 million barrels, the report actually showed an inventory decline of more than 5 million barrels. The dramatic decline touched off a huge rally in the futures market.

By the end of the day Wednesday, crude had risen almost $2.50 from its low of the day. The buying continued into Thursday with the December contract touching $89 per barrel and closing in on the all-time high of $90.07 set on Oct. 19 and trading over $90.50 Thursday night. If inventories continue to decline, it could push prices further. However, this is usually a time of year where inventories build and if that proves to be the case, prices could be pressured lower in coming weeks.

Lean hog futures fell each day this week after being weak since mid-summer. Many traders fear that recent hog slaughter numbers may be indicating too much supply for the market to absorb. USDA has reported slaughter totals of more than 2.3 million head for each of the past three weeks.

In contrast, before this recent surge, the largest slaughter number on record was 2.264 million set way back in 1998. The December hog futures contract has now fallen from its mid-summer high of almost 75 cents per pound to just under 55 cents on Thursday. The rapid pace of hog slaughters without a corresponding pickup in demand is pressuring prices lower.

On the week, prices fell by more than 2 cents per pound, or nearly 4 percent. We are entering a period of seasonally strong demand around both the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. If demand does pick up enough to absorb the supply, or if slaughter totals begin to wane, it could support prices and push them higher.

However, after the holidays, demand typically drops of sharply. If supply continues to increase, or even fails to drop off some, it could pressure prices lower in months to come.

Walt Breitinger is vice president of commodities at A.G. Edwards and Sons. He can be reached at (219) 738-6460.