Despite all Bears gear flying off shelves and an increase in orders at local pizza places over the past few weeks, experts are divided as to whether the team's Super Bowl run will actually have a measurable economic impact on the Chicago area.

Rick Horrow, a sports business expert with Miami-based Horrow Sports Ventures LLC who has more than 30 years of experience in the business, said that spending usually jumps 20 percent to 30 percent in the week leading up to the Super Bowl in a market whose team is in the game.

Horrow said he expects the same to hold true for Chicago.

"There are millions of energized people, full of pent-up emotions after 21 years of near misses," he said. "They will spend money on food, entertainment and social gatherings, and basically pump some dollars into the economy that generally wouldn't be there."

But Robert Baade, a professor of economics at Lake Forest College, disagrees.

Baade said there may be a short-term spike in spending, but it won't amount to a significant net gain because it's simply a shift of spending away from different items.

"If you have people spending more money in the community as a consequence of the Super Bowl, that money has to come from somewhere," he said. "If people are buying Brian Urlacher jerseys, it means they're buying less of other things."

Horrow disputes that, saying it's never a complete substitution, and adding that there's no guarantee people will spend money later if they don't spend it around the Super Bowl.

Patrick Rishe, an associate professor of economics at Webster University in St. Louis and director of Sportsimpacts, a sports business consulting firm, said it's unclear whether people who spend more to enhance their Super Bowl experience will spend less on other things.

"Some people, if they have enough income, can go on as normal" despite their extra spending, he said. "But other people will not be able to do that, so they've made a tradeoff. If they spend this kind of money on a new TV, then they can't go out to dinner."

But Rishe said that, regardless, there will be no significant economic impact, because he defines that term as an infusion of money into the community because of an event, as opposed to simply redirecting money. Rishe said that in Chicago's case, the Super Bowl may actually cause a monetary leakage.

"People went down to Miami to be part of the experience, so they're spending money there," he said.

"And most of the extra spending on memorabilia is going to leak back to corporations; it's simply being redirected locally from consumers' hands to producers' hands."

So if Chicago business might not benefit immediately from the Bears' Super Bowl appearance, is there the possibility for long-term gain? That's the conclusion of two teams of researchers, who found the success of a city's National Football League team correlates to increased per capita income.

Brad Humphreys and Dennis Coates co-authored a study in 2002 that found cities where the team wins a Super Bowl experience a gain in real per capita income of $140 the following year. Humphreys, an economist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, said he believes basking in the glow of a Super Bowl win "somehow makes workers more productive."

Building on Humphreys' and Coates' work are Michael Davis and Christian End, who concluded that general team success, as defined by regular-season wins, is just as important as a Super Bowl victory. Davis, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Missouri-Rolla, said the Bears' 13-3 record this season means a gain in per capita income of $142 for Chicagoans when compared against an 0-16 season.

Davis said that his findings differ from the other study because in his case the economic gains are realized during the successful regular season, while Humphreys said his gains kick in during the year following the Super Bowl victory.

End, an assistant professor of psychology at Xavier University in Cincinnati, has an explanation for why team accomplishments breed economic returns. He said fans identify with their team and success impacts their self-concept, as they feel better and more competent when they associate with a winner.

"If I believe I'm a winner and I go out on my sales call, that belief can lead to an increase in confidence and productivity." End said.