Is 'cheap' gasoline really a good thing?

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In this complex economic world of ours where so many things are interconnected, the Law of Unintended Consequences has yet to be repealed.

That suggests that some seemingly good things -- like our recent decrease in oil and gas prices or zero-down mortgages -- unfortunately have some downsides that we often don't always consider.

Gas at $1.80 a gallon makes us smile in light of the price insanity of last summer. Clearly, lower gas prices are good for the economy because it frees up dollars to be spent on something else or to be saved or to pay down debt. For some people it's the difference between buying groceries and having to go to the food pantry.

It's estimated that Americans use 350 million gallons of gasoline every day, so even a $1.50 a gallon drop from last summer means that our economy is getting the equivalent of a $3.7 billion stimulus package every week. Not exactly chump change.

And it should also put a bounce in our step to know that dictators and autocrats in various oil-producing countries that need $100 a barrel oil to fund their anti-U.S. agendas are scrambling to cut back on the generous social programs and huge subsidies that make them popular and which help keep them in power. Sometimes schadenfreude -- gaining pleasure from someone else's misfortune -- is appropriate.

It sounds like low gas prices are the proverbial free lunch. So what's the possible downside? Well, let's start with the resulting disinvestment in oil exploration. We're already seeing a cutback by Big Oil which will likely result in yet another energy crisis down the road.

When black crude is $125 a barrel, oil companies are more inclined to spend their money looking for new sources of oil, even though deep water exploration and oil shale extraction is costly and risky. They do the math and at $125 a barrel, it's a feasible investment.

But when oil is $50 a barrel they won't make those investments because they no longer see it as offering a good return based on the risks involved. It's simple economics and it's simple cause-and-effect logic. The end result is that no new sources will be added to the world supply and that's why we'll soon have another "shortage" and $5 gas.

Relatively cheap oil also means that alternative energy investments become harder to justify both economically and politically. The sense of urgency for wind power and solar power and electric cars is diminished when we find ourselves dancing at the pump because we can fill up for $25. As the price decreases, so does our pump-rage. As the screaming headlines go away, so also might our national resolve for permanent and more Earth-friendly alternatives.

Don't get me wrong. I'll continue to happily fill-up with $1.80 gas, but I'll also know that the bill for the free lunch will have to be paid at some point.

And as our new administration comes up with ideas and programs to solve this complex economic mess we got ourselves into, let's hope that they show some respect for the law -- the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Opinions expressed solely are those of the writer. Mike Hoban, of Crown Point, is a senior consultant for an international leadership development and training firm. Send mail to him c/o The Times, or e-mail him at business-at-large@sbcglobal.net.

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