Last night, I had a stressful dream. In my dream I am twins. One twin is an adviser on economic matters for Gov. Mitch Daniels and the other serves in the same capacity for challenger Jill Long-Thompson.
Each twin plows through economic data. He spins statistics that make the favored candidate's arguments look good.
In the dream, the latest data for Gross Domestic Product for Indiana are released and the twins rush to download them and start the spin. GDP-IN is the value of all goods and services produced in the state in a particular year; the latest data are for 2007. They measure the magnitude of economic activity in the state and tell us what our efforts are worth to the rest of the U.S. and the world.
Jill's twin finds "Indiana's GDP grew by only 0.3 percent in 2007. This very slow growth put us in sole possession of 44th place among the 50 states. The U.S. growth rate was 2 percent, nearly seven times faster than Indiana."
Mitch's twin returns that "the Great Lake states (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin) came in dead last among the nation's eight regions. The regional growth rate was 0.5 percent, just a whisker ahead of Indiana's 0.3 percent. We shouldn't believe that we can separate ourselves from the problems we share with our neighbors."
This opening exchange sets the stage for the remainder of the dream. My two selves are now playing ping-pong. Jill's twin hits a forceful shot.
"We acknowledge that Indiana's problems have been long-term, but there is no evidence that things are getting better. From 1997 to 2002, Indiana's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.16 percent (31st in the nation). In the past five years, 2002 to 2007, Indiana's annual growth rate was cut in half and slipped to 1.08 percent (48th place).
"Typical of the nay-sayers," says Mitch's twin. "You fail to see Indiana's remarkable performance against terrible odds. During both of those five year intervals, when Democrats were in control almost all of those years, Indiana outperformed the five Great Lake states."
Jill's camp replies: "Indiana ranked 44th in the nation in acceleration of growth between those two periods, 1997 to 2002 and 2002 to 2007. Alternatively, we slowed down by 1.1 percent while the U.S. decelerated by just 0.2 percent. When will someone put the breaks on this severe downhill slide?"
The twin working with Mitch says, "The economy of our extended region, from Pennsylvania to Missouri, from Wisconsin to Kentucky is the weakest in the U.S. That explains why any Indiana governor celebrates even the smallest achievements. We are battling for survival in an economic whirlpool."
"Should we be comparing ourselves to other places that are losers?" Jill's twin asks. "Maybe we should think in terms of success and formulate plans that separate us from the problems of our neighbors. That's what we'll do."
Mitch's twin sends back a blistering shot. "That's what we have been doing, if you had paid attention."
I couldn't take any more truth and made myself wake up.
Opinions expressed solely are those of the writer. Morton Marcus is an economist, author and speaker formerly at the Kelley School of Business, Indiana University. He can be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo.com.
Posted in Local on Sunday, June 15, 2008 12:00 am Updated: 12:27 am.
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